Papers
arxiv:2602.03338

Accurate Failure Prediction in Agents Does Not Imply Effective Failure Prevention

Published on Feb 3
· Submitted by
Melisa Russak
on Feb 6
Authors:
,
,

Abstract

LLM critic models with high offline accuracy can cause variable performance impacts at deployment, necessitating pre-deployment testing to determine intervention safety and effectiveness.

AI-generated summary

Proactive interventions by LLM critic models are often assumed to improve reliability, yet their effects at deployment time are poorly understood. We show that a binary LLM critic with strong offline accuracy (AUROC 0.94) can nevertheless cause severe performance degradation, inducing a 26 percentage point (pp) collapse on one model while affecting another by near zero pp. This variability demonstrates that LLM critic accuracy alone is insufficient to determine whether intervention is safe. We identify a disruption-recovery tradeoff: interventions may recover failing trajectories but also disrupt trajectories that would have succeeded. Based on this insight, we propose a pre-deployment test that uses a small pilot of 50 tasks to estimate whether intervention is likely to help or harm, without requiring full deployment. Across benchmarks, the test correctly anticipates outcomes: intervention degrades performance on high-success tasks (0 to -26 pp), while yielding a modest improvement on the high-failure ALFWorld benchmark (+2.8 pp, p=0.014). The primary value of our framework is therefore identifying when not to intervene, preventing severe regressions before deployment.

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Accurate LLM critics do not guarantee safe intervention: like relentless contradiction, they can derail trajectories that would have succeeded. Despite strong offline accuracy (AUROC 0.94), a binary critic causes outcomes ranging from a 26-pp collapse to no effect at all, exposing a fundamental disruption–recovery tradeoff. Our lightweight pre-deployment test anticipates these failures, showing that the main benefit of intervention is knowing when to avoid it.

arXivLens breakdown of this paper 👉 https://arxivlens.com/PaperView/Details/accurate-failure-prediction-in-agents-does-not-imply-effective-failure-prevention-2235-9baf446d

  • Executive Summary
  • Detailed Breakdown
  • Practical Applications

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Paper page - Accurate Failure Prediction in Agents Does Not Imply Effective Failure Prevention
Papers
arxiv:2602.03338

Accurate Failure Prediction in Agents Does Not Imply Effective Failure Prevention

Published on Feb 3
· Submitted by
Melisa Russak
on Feb 6
Authors:
,
,

Abstract

LLM critic models with high offline accuracy can cause variable performance impacts at deployment, necessitating pre-deployment testing to determine intervention safety and effectiveness.

AI-generated summary

Proactive interventions by LLM critic models are often assumed to improve reliability, yet their effects at deployment time are poorly understood. We show that a binary LLM critic with strong offline accuracy (AUROC 0.94) can nevertheless cause severe performance degradation, inducing a 26 percentage point (pp) collapse on one model while affecting another by near zero pp. This variability demonstrates that LLM critic accuracy alone is insufficient to determine whether intervention is safe. We identify a disruption-recovery tradeoff: interventions may recover failing trajectories but also disrupt trajectories that would have succeeded. Based on this insight, we propose a pre-deployment test that uses a small pilot of 50 tasks to estimate whether intervention is likely to help or harm, without requiring full deployment. Across benchmarks, the test correctly anticipates outcomes: intervention degrades performance on high-success tasks (0 to -26 pp), while yielding a modest improvement on the high-failure ALFWorld benchmark (+2.8 pp, p=0.014). The primary value of our framework is therefore identifying when not to intervene, preventing severe regressions before deployment.

Community

Paper author Paper submitter

Accurate LLM critics do not guarantee safe intervention: like relentless contradiction, they can derail trajectories that would have succeeded. Despite strong offline accuracy (AUROC 0.94), a binary critic causes outcomes ranging from a 26-pp collapse to no effect at all, exposing a fundamental disruption–recovery tradeoff. Our lightweight pre-deployment test anticipates these failures, showing that the main benefit of intervention is knowing when to avoid it.

arXivLens breakdown of this paper 👉 https://arxivlens.com/PaperView/Details/accurate-failure-prediction-in-agents-does-not-imply-effective-failure-prevention-2235-9baf446d

  • Executive Summary
  • Detailed Breakdown
  • Practical Applications

This is an automated message from the Librarian Bot. I found the following papers similar to this paper.

The following papers were recommended by the Semantic Scholar API

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